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Top Storylines to Follow in the NBA This Summer: Will the Thunder Finally End the Repeat Drought in 2026?

Photo of Scott Kacsmar Scott Kacsmar23/06/2025 - 12:31 pm
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander #2 of the Oklahoma City Thunder
(Photo by Joshua Gateley/Getty Images)

For NBA teams, it would seem the Achilles heel to winning a championship is the literal Achilles tendon rupturing in your franchise player in the playoffs. This year was a disaster for that as Damian Lillard (Bucks), Jayson Tatum (Celtics), and Tyrese Haliburton (Pacers) all suffered that serious injury during a playoff game. Maybe we need to retire “0” as a jersey number as it’s evidently cursed.

Haliburton’s injury is obviously the most damaging as it happened halfway through the first quarter of Game 7 of the NBA Finals, and after he looked ready for the moment with three made 3-point shots. It was devastating, and the Pacers came up short in their bid for the NBA’s all-time underdog run to a championship, which the highly favored Oklahoma City Thunder won instead.

It’s one thing to lose a hard-fought playoff series. But when you throw that injury on top of it, that could compromise next season for these teams like the Pacers, Celtics, and Bucks as well.

Throw in some real unrest with how the 76ers feel about Joel Embiid, how Giannis Antetokounmpo feels about staying in Milwaukee, how the Knicks’ coaching search has gone, and what the Lakers and their new rich owner want to do with their money – having a healthy roster and stability at the top of the organization could be extremely valuable in the 2025-26 NBA season – even more than usual.

That’s also why the Oklahoma City Thunder are already a strong favorite (+220 at FanDuel) to repeat and win the 2026 NBA Finals. Even the Boston Celtics were only +300 this time one year ago after beating Dallas.

The Knicks, Rockets, and Cavaliers are all tied for second with +850 odds, but don’t go placing any bets just yet. The NBA moves quickly as the 2025 draft is this week, and free agency is just around the corner.

Let’s look at the top storylines to follow this summer as we wait until October for the next NBA season to get here. After last night’s devastating finish with the Haliburton injury, we all probably feel a little robbed of seeing something great at the end after what was the best postseason in a long time for the NBA with so many great moments.

Will the Thunder Go on an NBA Dynasty Run?

I see we’re back to throwing the ‘d-word’ out there in sports media, and I can tolerate it when you’re talking about the Kansas City Chiefs. That’s a modern dynasty. But the Florida Panthers trying to claim it after one NHL repeat is premature, and the NBA media were already using the word for Oklahoma City even before Game 7 tipped off. That’s crazy, but what else do you expect from NBA media that comprises of Skip Bayless, Stephen A. Smith, and Kendrick Perkins?

The fact is people see dynasty potential for the Thunder here thanks to their youth and talent as most of the core is very young, and players like Jalen Williams and Chet Holmgren shouldn’t have reached the peak of their capabilities yet. Williams has all the potential to be a Scottie Pippen-like sidekick to Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, who has gotten better every year and he just became the fourth player to win the scoring title, MVP, and Finals MVP in the same season.

Coach Mark Daigneault is only 40 years old and seems to have a good vision for the game. This team also isn’t a one-year fluke or flash in the pan as the Thunder were 57-25 and the No. 1 seed in the Western Conference a year ago too.

Granted, were they really the “best margin of victory in NBA history for a season” level of great this year? They set that record, but I’d argue they weren’t exceptionally great at shooting (any depth level), passing, or rebounding.

As I tried telling everyone in May, the Thunder’s secret sauce is dominating turnovers like no other team in NBA history on both ends of the court. They protect the ball very well and they pressure you and out-hustle you into mistakes.

And yes, they get away with quite a bit of contact too – especially Alex Caruso and Luguentz Dort – while getting their share of favorable whistles on the other end for touch fouls, something the rest of the league will want looked at if this turns into a dynasty. I’m not sure why SGA is allowed to elbow people to create space with such impunity, but that’s how he won this championship, especially in Game 4 when the Pacers were about to take a 3-1 lead.

But we had numbers this postseason that showed the Thunder were very good at deflecting passes and creating disruption with turnovers in 2023-24 as well, but they just took things to another level this season, and it absolutely won them the championship in the end.

Remember, Indiana led by one point at halftime in Game 7 even after the devastating Haliburton injury. The Thunder were not able to pull away until the third quarter, and sure enough, that’s when the Pacers had 7 turnovers and got very careless with the ball. The Thunder finished with 32 points off 21 Indiana turnovers, and that won the game for them on a night where they barely shot 40% and SGA scored 29 points on 27 shots.

It was the turnovers. It was always the turnovers with this team, and while you might think they’re due for some regression to the mean in this area next year as maybe more of those deflected balls will go the other way, that may not be the case.

Without doing a formal study on it, I feel that turnovers in the NBA are more consistent (solid correlation; teams are more likely to repeat success or struggles from previous season) than in the NFL where they have proven to be very random and prone to regression to the mean on both sides of the ball (especially defense).

Sure, the Thunder will unlikely improve their turnover numbers in 2025-26, but they’re still going to put pressure on the ball and force officials to whistle them for fouls. This part of their game isn’t just going to go away unless they are somehow satisfied with the one ring and not hungry for more.

While I would still argue Boston’s strategy of high-volume 3-point shooting on top of playing great defense – the Golden State method basically – is more sustainable to winning multiple championships than being Turnover Merchants like OKC, this is something they can keep doing while hopefully their young players (Williams and Holmgren) get better and more consistent at scoring and rebounding. Holmgren’s blocked shots and rebounding were also huge in Game 7, and Williams finally got those two steals I kept picking him to get every game.

So, the Thunder have the right team composition to get this done. But the elephant in the room is that the NBA’s crowned seven new champions in seven seasons since 2019 – the second-longest streak in NBA history behind 1970-86 when no one repeated until the Lakers did in 1987-88.

The last repeat was the 2017-18 Warriors, and this is a league that loves repeat champions. But as we studied last year, injuries to star players come playoff time are at an all-time high, and that (combined with the volatile 3-point shot and load management arguably making bench play more important) has a lot to do with the postseason results from the last decade being so filled with upsets and one-off runs.

Can the Thunder repeat? Absolutely. Will they do it? Well, if you can promise me SGA or J-Dub won’t pop their Achilles next spring, then I might buy into it. But it wasn’t the easiest path for them this year as this team was staring a 3-1 hole in the face in both Denver and Indiana before pulling out both games and eventually winning Game 7 at home.

I’m not sure that leads itself well to a dynasty run, but someone will have to beat them, and this is a league that’s still celebrating the likes of LeBron James, Steph Curry, and Kevin Durant (see next section) when they are very close to retirement rather than adding any more championships to their resumes.

The Thunder are the team to beat, and it’s also a matter of just staying healthy for the whole playoff run – something almost no team is able to do anymore.

Five NBA Teams: Kevin Durant Traded to Houston Rockets

The NBA Finals weren’t the league’s only big news on Sunday. Kevin Durant is getting traded from the Phoenix Suns to the Houston Rockets in exchange for Jalen Green, Dillon Brooks, the 10th pick in the 2025 draft, and five second-round picks.

Durant turns 37 in September, and this will be his fifth team. He’s still scoring a lot and shooting the ball efficiently, but this won’t make the Rockets better defensively for coach Ime Udoka. However, Houston’s offense was maddeningly frustrating last year despite a 52-30 record that was good enough for No. 2 in the Western Conference, and that’s where the Rockets needed the most help.

A big source of that frustration was the young and inconsistent Green, who had a 38-point Game 2 against the Warriors in the playoffs before scoring 9-8-11-12-8 points in the final five games of that first-round loss. Your leading scorer cannot be that impotent for five games in a playoff series, so I think the move is very justified, and losing Brooks is no big deal.

But is Durant enough to take down the Thunder or even finish ahead of the Nuggets or similar teams? Not sure about that. He hasn’t had many deep playoff runs outside of the Golden State years and durability/injury is always a concern with him.

But it does add an interesting layer to the Western Conference this year as maybe Durant can shine with his new team as a way to slow down the repeat attempt of his original team. Check that, the Seattle SuperSonics (#NeverForget) were his original team, so let’s just say the team he played the most games for in Oklahoma City.

Durant is the first major domino to fall in player movement this offseason. Expect much more to come.

The 2025 NBA Draft: Cooper Flagg to Dallas?

Before we get into more free agency news, it’s the 2025 NBA Draft this Wednesday and Thursday. It’s one of those classes where there is one big prize at the top in Duke’s Cooper Flagg, and the Dallas Mavericks somehow ended up winning the draft lottery to get the rights to that No. 1 pick despite having 1.8% odds to do so. Many were saying it was rigged or a hush-hush deal after the Luka Doncic trade to LA, but the Mavericks get a shot to take the most deserving player.

Personally, I think it would have been far more interesting if Flagg took his defensive skills and potential for promising offense to the Charlotte Hornets where he could stay in North Carolina and help that team get back on track. The Utah Jazz also would have been a fitting pick for obvious reasons. A famous white player from Duke? Yeah, that’s Utah through and through.

But in Dallas, you’re talking about potentially having Flagg next to Anthony Davis, or a “double big” that ESPN’s Doris Burke could only dream about. That duo could do some damage to OKC’s Chet Holmgren and Isaiah Hartenstein.

But you’re going to need a good guard to get something out of that, and Kyrie Irving tore his ACL in March. He was set to be a free agent this summer, but with that kind of injury usually taking a 9-month recovery period, it’s possible he just stays in Dallas, returns during the season and tests the waters next offseason. But a trio of Irving-Davis-Flagg could be interesting. However, you’re talking about a rookie Flagg and a post-ACL Irving, so don’t expect much in 2025-26.

The Mavericks are +3200 at FanDuel to win the championship, which is 13th among all teams.

But if you’re looking for a headline beyond Flagg in the draft, don’t sleep on Rutgers guard Dylan Harper, the favorite to go No. 2 to the Spurs. That could be an interesting addition with Victor Wembanyama, De’Aaron Fox, and Stephon Castle.

Maybe the Spurs could make it three straight Rookie of the Year winners.

NBA Coaching Changes: Who Will the Knicks Hire?

NBA coaches sometimes don’t last as long as my articles, so let’s not spend too much time on them. But it’s a little wild that the Nuggets (David Adelman) and Grizzlies (Tuomas Iisalo) both prematurely fired their coaches late in the season before making the playoffs, then promoted the interim coach to the full-time job. The Kings also promoted interim coach Doug Christie, so that’s three teams going that route. Let’s hope it works better than in the NFL where it’s usually a terrible move.

But then you also have the Spurs replacing the legendary Gregg Popovich with Mitch Johnson after too many health issues have ailed Pop. Johnson is also a promotion as he’s been an assistant since 2019 with the Spurs.

As for a team who actually went out of the building to make a hire, the Suns fired Mike Budenholzer after one year and replaced him with Jordan Ott, who was an assistant in Cleveland this past season. But he won’t have Kevin Durant to use on offense.

That just leaves the New York Knicks, who fired Tom Thibodeau after five years and after getting the Knicks to the Eastern Conference Finals. Maybe he wasn’t the right guy to get the team over the hump, but boy, it sure looks a little premature in an Eastern Conference where the Pacers and Celtics could be compromised with those Achilles injuries for Haliburton and Tatum. They may not be back until the playoffs, if their teams are even going that far.

Throw in the way Joel Embiid is always hurt in Philadelphia and can’t get past the second round regardless. Throw in the fact that Giannis might leave Milwaukee, and that really leaves the Knicks with a nice path to the NBA Finals in 2026.

So, who do they hire? They keep requesting to interview active coaches like Jason Kidd and Ime Udoka and have been denied. They are reportedly interested in the likes of Mike Brown and Taylor Jenkins, but there’s seemingly no rush to make this crucial hire.

Look, I’d hire Michael Malone, who shouldn’t have been fired by the Nuggets. He’s got experience of deep playoff runs, overcoming adversity, he knows how to develop home-grown talent, good leadership, and he’s got a nice situation set up to win big in Year 1.

But we’ll see what the Knicks actually do here as the final piece of the coaching puzzle, assuming they don’t try to steal Rick Carlisle away from the Pacers after losing to him in the playoffs two years in a row.

Hey, maybe that’d be a great idea if Indiana was crazy enough to allow it.

NBA Legends on the Move (Or Not): All Eyes on Giannis Antetokounmpo

Finally, we can talk about free agency where negotiations can begin June 30, 2025. It’s not the deepest class as someone like Brandon Ingram (Raptors) has already signed an extension, and we already talked about Kyrie Irving’s injury probably cooling his market considerably.

But this is the first NBA free agency after the shocking Luka Doncic trade in February, so we’ll see if “anything goes” is truly on the table for NBA teams after that bit of madness from GM Nico Harrison, who may end up winning in the end if Cooper Flagg is as good as advertised. Not that he deserves to win for that trade.

There are some heavy hitters with player options and the ability to change teams this summer, but not many teams have the cap space to make it work without trading away some major assets and shaking up the chemistry.

Can we chill with the super team stuff? The last three champions (2023 Nuggets, 2024 Celtics, and 2025 Thunder) have all shown you can develop your own players and make modest free-agent moves to build a championship team.

Alas, players like LeBron James and James Harden could be on the move, but will either really want to play for a team that can afford them like the Brooklyn Nets? They’re not ready to be a contender, and we know LeBron only cares about getting that fifth ring, and Harden would like just one.

Both can still contribute heavily to a top team, but age is catching up on them. There’s also an argument that staying in Los Angeles is the best decision for both, and that may be what ends up happening, keeping this free-agent period even weaker.

Otherwise, you’re looking at a player like Jonathan Kuminga (Warriors) looking to cash in with a new team. Maybe Clint Capela (Hawks) is a top center option for a rebounder, and Myles Turner (Pacers) may leave Indiana after a decade. Julius Randle may or may not be back in Minnesota where he went from having a great postseason to reminding us why he’s been bad in the playoffs for most of his career.

The Miami Heat could be a team that’s on the move for a new star after trading Jimmy Butler to the Warriors. Who could they get? That’s the spot that could be most interesting for Giannis Antetokounmpo if he really wants to leave the coaching instability behind in Milwaukee, a team that also has Dame’s Achilles injury to deal with.

But Giannis is under contract through 2026-27, and it’s a tough super-max contract to move. A team like Miami would be expected to give up a player like Bam Adebayo and possibly more (Tyler Herro?) in addition to multiple high picks.

That’s why there is sentiment that Giannis won’t be moved this summer, and contrary to popular belief, the new Lakers owner, billionaire Mark Walton, can’t really spend an infinite amount of money like he’s done with the Los Angeles Dodgers in MLB to buy the best team. There are stricter penalties in place with the NBA’s soft cap, including a first and second apron system where you can’t go above a certain amount without the harshest penalty like loss of draft picks and considerable fines and luxury taxes.

In other words, you can’t just field a team with LeBron, Luka, and Giannis in 2025-26 even if that’d be so interesting to watch.

While a Giannis move would be the most interesting player to change teams this season, maybe with the state of the Eastern Conference, Milwaukee just tries to bring him another good teammate and make the most of what they have this year.

And this summer, the NBA and every NBA star should look into doing whatever exercises they can to strengthen the calf and Achilles, or making it more flexible, or producing a shoe that will give the most protection from that type of injury.

The Achilles is unfortunately having way too much of an impact on the legacies of today’s NBA players.

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Photo of Scott Kacsmar Scott Kacsmar23/06/2025 - 12:31 pm